Q4 Earnings Show Promise: Sector ETFs to Win

Key Takeaways

The Q4 2024 earnings season is off to a strong start, with major banks surpassing estimates and offering encouraging guidance for the upcoming quarters. S&P 500 earnings for 2025 are projected to grow by 13.6% on a 5.3% increase in revenues. All 16 Zacks sectors are anticipated to see positive earnings growth, with 10 sectors expected to achieve double-digit growth rates, per Earnings Trends issued on Jan. 15, 2025.

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For the “Magnificent 7” group, total 2025 earnings are expected to be up 15.7% on 12.7% higher revenues. Excluding the Mag 7 contribution, total earnings for the remaining S&P 500 companies are expected to increase 13% in 2025, which compares to 1.6% growth in 2024 and a 5.2% decline in 2023.

For the 28 S&P 500 members that have reported Q4 results, total earnings are up 23% from the same period last year on 7% higher revenues, with 78.6% beating EPS estimates and 71.4% beating revenue estimates.

Investors should note that Q4 earnings estimates for the Tech, Finance, Consumer Discretionary, and Business Services sectors increased since the start of the quarter. Notably, Q4 earnings are expected to be above the year-earlier level for eight of the 16 Zacks sectors, with Medical (earnings growth of +12.0%), Tech (+14.7%) and Finance (+17.9%) enjoying significant earnings growth.

Sector ETFs to Win

Against this backdrop, the following sector-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) should gain.

Technology – Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLK )

Earnings of this sector are expected to grow 14.7% in Q4 on 10.1% higher revenues.  The Tech sector has been a significant growth driver in recent quarters, and the trend is expected to continue in 2024 Q4 and beyond. Its earnings outlook is steadily improving. The ETF XLK has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) (read: What Lies Ahead for Apple Stock & ETFs in 2025?).

Finance – Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLF )

Earnings of this sector are expected to grow 17.9% in Q4 on 5.6% higher revenues.  In fact, we already have Q4 results from 21.6% of the sector’s market capitalization on the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these Finance companies are up 23.7% from the same period last year on 10.7% higher revenues, with 100% of the companies beating EPS estimates and 83.3% surpassing revenue estimates. The XLF ETF has a Zacks Rank #1 (read: ETFs to Play Upbeat Bank Earnings).